From January to November, China's automobile sales reached 25.845 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%. This is not far from the target of the 5% growth in 2017 predicted by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers ("CCCC"). Chen Shihua, assistant secretary-general of the China Automobile Association, said that the auto industry is facing greater pressure this year, mainly due to the high base in the previous year, as well as the adjustment of preferential policies for purchase tax and new energy vehicles.
In fact, in the past ten years, the growth rate of China's auto market has been characterized by cyclical growth. Among them, the growth rates in 2010, 2013 and 2016 were both double digits, and they all entered the adjustment period. According to this rule, this year and next year, the auto market will return to micro-growth or a high probability event.
"In 2018, the factors affecting the automobile market are generally negative. In the context of weak growth in passenger vehicles and slowdown in commercial vehicle growth, it is expected that the growth rate of automobile sales in 2018 will not be higher than this year." On December 13 At the 2018 China Automobile Market Development Forecast Summit organized by the China Automobile Association, Wang Qing, deputy director of the circulation research department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, gave the above judgment. In conjunction with the scheduling plan of the automobile company, Xu Haidong, assistant secretary-general of the China Automobile Association, predicted that in 2018, the domestic automobile market will sell 29.87 million units, with an expected growth rate of 3%; the whole vehicle exports will be 1.06 million units, and the whole vehicle imports will be 1.3 million units; The cumulative market demand was 30.11 million units.
Passenger cars: SUVs will be slower next year or super cars, but the growth rate will slow down 1.6 liters and the following models have been the main sales force in the passenger car market. According to statistics, in the first 11 months of this year, sales of passenger cars of 1.6 liters and below were 15.137 million. It accounts for 68.5% of the passenger car sales. However, the 2018 purchase tax preferential policy will be completely withdrawn, which will have an impact on the passenger car market? Wang Qing told the China Auto News: "No matter whether the purchase tax preferential policy is abolished, the impact on passenger car sales and the overdraft effect will continue to weaken. At the same time, new cars will be intensively launched in 2017 and will be released in 2018. Therefore, the passenger car will have an inherent requirement for a weak recovery in the next year."
Xu Haidong further analyzed from the perspective of population structure that the new birth population declined sharply in the 1990s and 00s. In 2016, the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy and the rebound in the number of births will boost the auto market. "In combination with a variety of factors, the passenger car market is expected to maintain a 3% growth next year, with sales expected to be 25.59 million units." Xu Haidong said.
It is worth noting that as the strong support for the growth of passenger cars in recent years, the market share of SUV models is expected to exceed that of cars next year, but the growth rate will drop significantly and even return to single digits. Hong Hao, the full-time deputy head of the headquarters of the sales department of Dongfeng Nissan Market and head of the business development department, believes that the SUV has been growing for many years, and the â€œGod Carâ€ with a monthly sales of 80,000 units, such as Haval H6, has emerged as an important segment of the rapid rise of independent brands. . "Although the growth rate will slow down next year, it is still faster than ordinary cars." Hong Hao stressed, "From the plan announced by the automakers, 120 new cars are expected to be listed next year, and the proportion of suvs is still as high as 52%, of which A The level suv is to compete in the Red Sea, and it is recommended that the car companies switch to the less competitive A0 and B-class SUV markets."
When the car market picks up, Luo Yinhui, director of the strategic management department of FAW Group, believes that the car market will not always decline. It is only because the SUV market is still in the development stage, and the consumption hotspots are here, but as the SUV market matures and stabilizes, The two will reach a balance. "In the next 5 to 10 years, in the market dominated by redemption, when the proportion of redemption is over half, the demand for redemption of cars will approach SUV, and users will still pursue the characteristics of car comfort and economy." Luo Yinhui said, "From the medium to long term Look, with the maturity of new materials, new energy and driverless technologies, there may be a new form of body that is completely different from current cars, SUVs and MPVs."
Commercial vehicles: Influencing factors are negative. Vehicle companies need to find patience. According to the data from January to November, China's commercial vehicle sales reached 3.754 million units, up 14.8% year-on-year, higher than the overall 11.2 percentage points. Among them, Dongfeng, Beiqi and Changan entered the top three. Shaanxi Automobile, Heavy Duty Truck and FAW have a faster growth rate. In terms of models, passenger car sales fell 5.4%, and truck sales increased 18.2%. Xu Haidong analyzed that the growth of the truck market was promoted by the special fund placement, the growth of consumer goods logistics and bulk cargo transportation, the implementation of the new GB1589 national standard, the overhaul of treatment, the increase in the demand for natural gas heavy trucks and the implementation of new environmental standards.
As a result of the greater impact of the policy, overall, the impact factors of commercial vehicles in 2018 are negative. The China Automobile Association predicts that the overall growth rate of commercial vehicles will remain at 2% in 2018, of which 3.81 million trucks will be sold, an increase of 3 %; passenger cars sold 470,000 units, down 8%. â€œStop production and production restrictions, coal to gas and other policies have led to a decline in freight demand, and the policy has weakened the effect on the heavy truck market.â€ Wang Qing explained that â€œtaking into account factors such as the macro economy and the slowdown in real estate investment growth, commercial use next year The growth rate of the car market will be the next step."
Although most experts believe that the commercial vehicle market will focus on the following lines in 2018, Zhang Jun, director of the management department of Dongfeng Group, said that because some factors are long-term, the market still has certain demand support. "For medium and heavy trucks, the scale, intensive, professional development of transportation and the increase in demand for natural gas vehicles will be opportunities for medium and heavy truck companies to seek growth. In light trucks, e-commerce and express delivery services are developing rapidly, and consumption is driving in economic development. The increase in the proportion, the relaxation of pickup restrictions into the city and the steady increase in freight rates will promote the development of the market; in terms of passenger cars, tourism development, improvement of road conditions and public transport development can be regarded as positive factors." Zhang Jun said.
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